Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."